True Cost-of-Ownership Modeller
Model the real cost of your home's energy over 10–25 years. Compare: do nothing, add solar, solar + battery, or full electrification. Uses live utility prices, real solar production data, and actual incentives.
Your Inputs
Results
Model Your Home's Energy Future
Enter your home details and select scenarios to compare. The modeller will simulate year-by-year costs using real electricity rates, solar production data, and current fuel prices to show you the true cost of each path.
How It Works
The Cost-of-Ownership Modeller runs a year-by-year simulation of your home's total energy costs under different scenarios. Unlike simple calculators that give you a single number, this tool models the full timeline including price escalation, equipment degradation, and the time-value of money.
Data Sources
- Electricity prices: EIA monthly retail rates by state (latest data)
- Natural gas prices: EIA monthly residential rates by state
- Gasoline prices: EIA weekly national average
- Solar production: NREL PVWatts v8 — real TMY weather simulation for your state
- Solar costs: NREL/LBNL Tracking the Sun — median $/W by state
- Battery costs: Industry average for residential lithium-ion systems
Key Assumptions
- Electricity price escalation: 3%/year (historical DoE average)
- Natural gas escalation: 2.5%/year
- Gasoline escalation: 2%/year
- Solar panel degradation: 0.5%/year (industry standard warranty rate)
- Battery degradation: 2%/year capacity loss
- Federal ITC: 30% for solar + battery (through 2032)
- Heat pump COP: 3.0 (moderate climate average)
- EV efficiency: 0.30 kWh/mile (mid-size EV average)
- Discount rate: 3% for NPV calculation
What This Tool Does NOT Model
- State-specific incentives beyond the federal ITC (see our Incentive Finder tool)
- Net metering credits (varies dramatically by state/utility)
- TOU rate arbitrage optimization
- Home value appreciation from improvements
- Maintenance and replacement costs
This is a directional comparison tool, not a financial guarantee. Actual costs will depend on your specific rate plan, usage patterns, and local incentive programs. For a detailed analysis, use our individual tools: Solar ROI, Heat Pump Savings, or EV Charging Cost.